Assessing the Impacts of Extreme Precipitation Change on Vegetation Activity

Extreme climate events frequently have more severe effects on terrestrial vegetation activity than long-term changes in climate averages. However, changes in extreme climate events as well as their potential risk on vegetation activity are still poorly understood. By using the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River (MLR-YR) in China as an example, this paper aims to understand the vegetation response to changes in extreme precipitation events from 1982 to 2012 using the maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as an indicator. By applying extreme value theory (EVT), the potential risks of extreme precipitation events on vegetation activity were analyzed by conducting return period analysis. Results indicated that vegetation activity could be affected by extreme precipitation events, especially the combined effects of the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes. For instance, vegetation activity could be enhanced in the regions with weakened intensity but increased occurrence of extreme precipitation events. In addition, we found potential risk of extreme precipitation events on vegetation activity from the results of precipitation extreme trend and return period analysis. These phenomena can be associated with the local occurrence of extreme precipitation events, different land cover types, and soil moisture cumulative effect on vegetation growth. This study stresses the importance of considering both current changes in and the potential risk of extreme precipitation events to understand their effects on vegetation activity.