Decline in the Cultivation of Minor Millets in Tamil Nadu: A Time-Series Analysis of Cultivation Area, Production, and Productivity (1952-53 to 2021-22)

Aims: In India and Tamil Nadu, millets, often referred to as "smart food" for their nutritional, environmental, and agronomic benefits, have historically taken a back seat to other staple grains like rice and wheat. These resilient crops thrive in challenging conditions, requiring minimal resources. However, minor millets, a subset of these grains, have been overlooked in research despite their potential for climate-smart agriculture and superior nutrition.

Data: This study delves into time-series data spanning from 1952-53 to 2021-22, focusing on the cultivation area, production, and productivity of minor millets in both India as a whole and Tamil Nadu.

Objective: To analyze historical trends, assess the impact of factors like rainfall on crop cultivation, and explore the relationships between key variables.

Methodology: A combination of methodologies was employed. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) analysis was conducted to assess the historical trends in minor millets cultivation, production, and productivity. Correlation coefficient analysis examined the relationship between rainfall and selected crop cultivation areas. The Cobb-Douglas production function was employed to model the relationship between production, rainfall, and cultivated area of minor millets, while regression analysis using an exponential function further explored the relationship between rainfall and crop cultivation of selected crops.

Results: The results reveal nuanced trends in minor millets cultivation, showing fluctuations in cultivation areas, production, and productivity over the years. The analysis underscores the impact of changing agricultural practices, preferences, and external factors such as climate variability on minor millets cultivation. Specifically, the correlation analysis highlights the varying sensitivities of different crops to rainfall patterns.

Conclusion: This comprehensive study provides critical insights into the historical dynamics and prospects of minor millets cultivation in India and Tamil Nadu. The findings offer valuable information for agricultural planning, resource allocation, and strategies to promote sustainable agriculture and nutrition in the region.