A Case Study of Time Series Analysis to Forecast the Number of Patients with Tuberculosis in Khartoum State from 2007 to 2016

This paper used time series analysis to predict the number of tuberculosis (TB) patients in Khartoum state. It is based on data obtained from TB patients the period from 2007 to 2016. The study was able to determine the best model of order (2) ARIMA (2, 1, 0) for data. The most important result of the study is to estimate the number of patients with TB the next four years in quartile basis. So, the forecasting value represented the source time series data and was observed to decrease. The impotence of this study stems from the use of TB data and hence the estimation of the number of patients in the future, benefiting patients and specialists like.