MACBETH-GMDH BASED EFFICIENCY ASSESSMENT INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT FOR PERFORMANCE OPTIMIZATION OF HYDRO POWER PLANTS

The present investigation attempts to develop a new method for the evaluation of the parameters influencing the efficiency of new hydropower projects. It aims to provide a framework that allows decision makers to better target resources in HPPs, thereby improve both technical and commercial efficiencies. For this purpose it utilizes multiple criteria decision-making methods as they are well adapted to the taking into account the range of complex scenarios characterized by a diverse set of parameters. It proposes a new hybrid model based on the MACBETH or Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique of decision making analysis along with the GMDH or Group Method of Data Handling method. In effect MACBETH determines the priorities, as well as, predicts the efficiencies of HPPs using the GMDH as an index measure which in turn is constructed by the weighted sum of each factor. This is especially relevant in a global environment that is shifting increasingly towards sustainable and renewable sources of energy. Whilst the worldwide contribution of hydropower plants (HPP) in the supplying of electricity demand is around 16%, the main challenges to this source remains in the dependence of it’s effective functioning on multiple variables such as climatic, hydraulic and socio-economic, all of which also depend on the hydraulic loss imposed when the plants are operating, changes in energy requirements, locational interference and the quality of machine installations. In addition to this, there is other determinant parameters which have different levels of influence on the performance efficiencies of HPPs. Optimization of the input parameters as well as the operating conditions has been enabled by the decision making analysis techniques applied in this study to provide important insights for the improving of Hydroelectric Power Plants performances. The results of this study show that the efficiency of the generator and labor input appears to be the most impacting on the outputs of HPPs.