Estimation of Some Epidemiological Parameters With the COVID-19 Data of Mayotte

Manou-Abi, Solym M. and Slaoui, Yousri and Balicchi, Julien (2022) Estimation of Some Epidemiological Parameters With the COVID-19 Data of Mayotte. Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 8. ISSN 2297-4687

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Abstract

We study in this article some statistical methods to fit some epidemiological parameters. We first consider a fit of the probability distribution which underlines the serial interval distribution of the COVID-19 on a given set of data collected on the viral shedding in patients with laboratory-confirmed. The best-fit model of the non negative serial interval distribution is given by a mixture of two Gamma distributions with different shapes and rates. Thus, we propose a modified version of the generation time function of the package R0. Second, we estimate the time-varying reproduction number in Mayotte. Using a justified mathematical learning model, we estimate the transmission parameters range values during the outbreak together with a sensitivity analysis. Finally, using some regression and forecasting methods, we give some learning models of the hospitalized, intensive care, and death cases over a given period. We end with a discussion and the limit of this study together with some forthcoming theoretical developments.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: European Repository > Medical Science
Depositing User: Managing Editor
Date Deposited: 02 Jan 2023 10:21
Last Modified: 16 Mar 2024 03:49
URI: http://go7publish.com/id/eprint/796

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